We analyse some recent changes in the agrarian scenario in the districts of Wardha, Washim (or undivided Akola) and Yavtatmal and the state of Maharashtra. Using three year moving average trends from 1990-1 to 2002-3, we give growth rates of production for selected crops
In the selected districts, the linear trend growth rate for production of Cereals was negative. This is largely explained by a negative area effect mostly for Jowar and Paddy. For these two crops, except for Paddy in Yavatmal, the yield effect has also been negative indicating that the shifts in cropping pattern are likely to be from lands with greater yield. The linear trend growth rate for Wheat was positive and this can be explained by positive area as well as yield effects. An exception is Yavatmal, where yield effect was negative. For Maharashtra state, the results are somewhat similar – linear trend growth rate for production of Cereals is negative. The share of area/production in the selected districts to total area/production for Cereals (particularly, Jowar and Paddy) in Maharashtra has declined. The share of production, particularly for Jowar, has been higher than the share of area indicating that the yield for Jowar in the study district is higher than the average for the state. Despite this, area has been declining and its share has come down. This can be explained by the fact that the share of gross value added relative to share of area under cultivation is the lowest for Jowar Linear trend growth rate for Sugarcane production has been positive and this is largely explained by a positive area effect. In Wardha, there has been a positive yield effect also. In undivided Akola, Yavatmal as well as for Maharashtra the yield effect has been negative. This negative yield effect is stronger than the area effect in Yavatmal and in this district there has been a secular decline in production in the last three years. The increase in area under Sugarcane in the selected districts despite the fact that yield of Sugarcane is lower than the state’s average is because of its advantage from gross value addition. The share of area/production under Sugarcane in the selected districts to the total area under Sugarcane in Maharashtra has increased in Wardha, but not in the other two districts.
In the selected districts, the linear trend growth rate for production of Cereals was negative. This is largely explained by a negative area effect mostly for Jowar and Paddy. For these two crops, except for Paddy in Yavatmal, the yield effect has also been negative indicating that the shifts in cropping pattern are likely to be from lands with greater yield. The linear trend growth rate for Wheat was positive and this can be explained by positive area as well as yield effects. An exception is Yavatmal, where yield effect was negative. For Maharashtra state, the results are somewhat similar – linear trend growth rate for production of Cereals is negative. The share of area/production in the selected districts to total area/production for Cereals (particularly, Jowar and Paddy) in Maharashtra has declined. The share of production, particularly for Jowar, has been higher than the share of area indicating that the yield for Jowar in the study district is higher than the average for the state. Despite this, area has been declining and its share has come down. This can be explained by the fact that the share of gross value added relative to share of area under cultivation is the lowest for Jowar Linear trend growth rate for Sugarcane production has been positive and this is largely explained by a positive area effect. In Wardha, there has been a positive yield effect also. In undivided Akola, Yavatmal as well as for Maharashtra the yield effect has been negative. This negative yield effect is stronger than the area effect in Yavatmal and in this district there has been a secular decline in production in the last three years. The increase in area under Sugarcane in the selected districts despite the fact that yield of Sugarcane is lower than the state’s average is because of its advantage from gross value addition. The share of area/production under Sugarcane in the selected districts to the total area under Sugarcane in Maharashtra has increased in Wardha, but not in the other two districts.
